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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Slight Risk in Mid atlantic states in USA !


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

3 TORNADOES ALREADY REPORTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. REPORTS YET TO BE CONFIRMED. MANY MORE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
A classic upper level trough ejecting over the Eastern states of USA having maximum jets of 80kt will bring down some severe weather along with the classic 50kt low level jets centered over Central-Eastern Virginia, North Carolina,Maryland,PA,NYC
Maximum CAPE of 2000J/Kg will build over East coast of North Carolina,Virginia coupled with 200 m2 s2 Helicity at 0-1km level
Severe weather will pop up in Mid atlantic states in the warm moist sector having Surface dewpoints of 70F.

Discrete supercells will form and all of the will be HP since the precipitable water is 2.0"+ in most of the areas. The tri front point will center over North Eastern North Carolina which I guess has the maximum tornado threat
Tornado watches already in effect in many areas. The main risk lies in Eastern North Carolina,Eastern Virginia, Maryland,Washington area

Strong RIP currents and winds will strike coastal areas. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS POST, HEAVY RAINS 2-6" AND FLOODING POTENTIALS WILL HAPPEN IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT
/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
 HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH
 CAROLINA.EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN EASTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA.  * UNTIL 730 AM EDT  * AT 702 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
 RADAR INDICATED A   TORNADO OVER PLYMOUTH...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. 


Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Nicole dies! FLOOD ALERT STILL CONTINUES


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected, Tropical storm Nicole has dissipated at 5PM Sept 29 just few
miles SE of Florida.
BUT the flood threat for the eastern coast still continues as the low pressure wi
ll move towards Eastern States on Thursday and having air pressure nearing to 1000mb!

On thursday very heavy rains will continue to strike with

flooding potentials mainly in Extreme North-East South Carolina,Eastern and Central North Carolina,Central Virginia on Thursday and also in Maryland,DC,New york from late Wednesday night to Friday mid period


The NWS has already issued a Flash flood alert

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 9:05 PM EDT on September 29, 2010


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from midnight EDT tonight
through Thursday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Maryland... the District of Columbia... Virginia and
northeast West Virginia... including the following areas... in
Maryland... Anne Arundel... Calvert... Carroll... Charles...
Frederick MD... Harford... Howard... Montgomery... northern
Baltimore... Prince Georges... southern Baltimore... St. Marys
and Washington. The District of Columbia. In Virginia...
Albemarle... Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria... Augusta...
Clarke... Culpeper... Fairfax... Frederick VA... Greene... King
George... Loudoun... Madison... Nelson... northern Fauquier...
Orange... Page... Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park...
Rappahannock... Rockingham... Shenandoah... southern Fauquier...
Spotsylvania... Stafford and Warren. In northeast West
Virginia... Berkeley... Jefferson and Morgan.

* From midnight EDT tonight through Thursday evening

* light rain overspreading the area from the south this evening
will increase in intensity tonight... becoming heavy at times
late tonight and Thursday as low pressure tracks up the East
Coast. Rainfall totals of two to four inches are expected...
with localized amounts up to six inches possible.


Also,, STRONG WINDS AT SURFACE LEVEL WILL TROUBLE THE EASTERN COASTS OF VIRGINIA,NEW YORK,PHILADELPHIA AND COASTAL AREAS WITH STRONG SURFS

A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FROM EASTERN NC TO MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LESS 2000J/KG CAPE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NC
THERE IS A STRONG ARGUMENT IN GFS AND NAM MODELS.
THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINS AND 1-2 TORNADO OR EVEN 0 DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS

METD WEATHER CONTINUES ALL THE WEATHER ALERTS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EVEN AFTER THE DEATH OF NICOLE. THIS WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE IS THE ORIGINAL CAUSE OF PROBLEM AND NOT"TROPICAL STORM NICOLE"

Flood threat to Eastern Coast of USA due to Tropical Storm Nicole


300th Post for METD WEATHER BLOG

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Extremely heavy rains adding to flooding potentials are reserved for the Eastern coast due to Tropical Storm/Depression Nicole

National Hurricane Center has confirmed at 11AM EDT,29th Sept 2010 that Tropical Depression 16 has turned to Tropical storm Nicole as marked by the Saffir Simpson scale.
The Center of Nicole remains over Central Cuba at 11AM EDT. The forecast models of GFS are indicating that Nicole will hit the eastern states of USA namely Extreme SE Florida,Eastern NC,Virginia east,Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Nicole will not become very severe since the winds near USA will be very strong to unorganize it
As Nicole exits Cuba region, it will get trapped in the South-Easterly flow as nicole moves few miles SE of Florida. Nicole might turn back to a Tropical Depression in Atlantic and will quickly move towards the North Eastern States given the 50kt SE flow towards NW.
As a result of which, Very heavy rains 4"+ will hit Extreme North East South Carolina from Wednesday late night to Thursday late period.At the same time equivalent strong rains will continue in Eastern and Central North Carolina, Central Virginia on Thursday and less intensified rains in Maryland and DC area.

I haven't mentioned of Strong winds as from the recent model datas, I expect Nicole's strong winds to stay offshore North Eastern States. Moderate winds and heavy rains is the matter of concern.

The low pressure offshore Karnataka in Arabian Sea looks like a sooner Tropical Depression








METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As had mentioned in the earlier posts, the widespread area of convection having cloud tops upto -70C and a newly developed low air pressure of 1008mb is looking good to be marked as a Tropical Depression as seen from the morning's satellite imagery. The recent Cloud Motion Vectors or CMV from this system are nearing to 30kt at upper level. The arriving datas from CIMSS is indicating a very good 20kt upper level divergence in the system and as encountering 28-30C SST.
However, This convection is not getting enough convergence necessary to give more geometric shape and creating a perfect textbook Tropical depression but the intensity remains good for calling as a Tropical Depression in coming hours given the decreasing deep layer shear tendency.

At present, there is no indication from IMD,JTWC about it but I still believe some notes on it will be put if this one is characterized as Tropical Depression
I don't expect a Tropical Cyclone from it

Attachment- The Enhanced Infrared image from IMD. Look the textbook size of the convection.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

SW Monsoon 2010 Retreating over Nagpur today.

The 2010 SW Monsoon after a half  month delay is finally retreating! The 850mb winds which are generally referred as Monsoon winds are backing up due to the presence of anticyclone over Central India
The monsoon winds and monsoon moisture over Central India will now decrease in the coming days. AS a result of it, the RH(relative humidity over Nagpur) which currently is above 60% which is defined as Moist air will decrease to 30% which means dry air.

AS a result of this afternoon time in Nagpur will be very uncomfortable as dry air holds up. Winter 2010 in Nagpur has already initiated IN VERY VERY SMALL SCALE. The full swing winters will initiate by 20th Oct 2010 or late after the monsoon retreats completely over Central India. 
This years winter are expected to be cooler than normal(in slight scale) given the La Nina in active phase. 

2010 Monsoon statistics in Nagpur( AS RECORDED FROM METD WEATHER HQ)

Month        Total rains(mm)     Normal rains(mm)          % normal 

June 2010-     NA                         172                             NA

July 2010-      279                       351.5                            79.49
  
August    -     573                        278                            106.12 (100+106.12=206.12)

Sept      -       287                       180.5                           159%

(TOTAL 2010 RAINS CAN'T BE DETERMINED SINCE JUNE 2010 DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE)

No. of days of rain in Nagpur( AS RECORDED BY METD WEATHER)

June - NA
July - 14
August-19
Sept- 8

There had been 6-8 Low pressures in Bay of Bengal this year. 
Considering all, this year's season is MORE than normal rainfall season
ATTACHMENT- The 850mb map of India

Fox News 12 in Oregon use my info including on air TV mention

First of all I owe a huge thank you to Garron Socum from Washington Square in the USA for making this possible. It was his hard work that made this breakthrough possible by reposting my research and work to date, which also included my winter forecast video which appeared on the Fox 12 News website in Oregon, USA.


TV and Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen used the information from my research and actually mentioned it LIVE on air during their TV weather segment on WED 22nd Sept 2010, he also referred to my theory that we may be heading for a Dalton/Maunder Minimum on his website afterwards, of which he stated "both of these are associated with much cooler than normal global weather, but I didn't factor this into my winter outlook either".

I am overjoyed that I have made the news at last, it is however ashame that it had to come from the other side of the world as no UK media source will take me seriously.  Still publicity is publicity and even if it only raises some small awareness, I am still very happy to have made the news. Once again I can't thank you enough Garron for making this possible.

J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

Widespread convection in Arabian Sea might turn to a Tropical Depression soon


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

(Continued post from the previous on "Will new cyclone develop in Arabian Sea"

Widespread convection is already happening in arabian sea having an extent from 5-15N and 60-70E
The Kalpana-1 Satellite imagery is showing intense cloud tops of -50C in 5-10N.
The 00z GFS,28th Sept 2010 is showing a LLC (low level cyclonic circulation) already persists at 850mb. This LLC is expected to strengthen more and organize into a low pressure in arabian sea given the 20kt+ widespread divergent area around the convection. Convergence at the lower levels will be building in the coming time and organize this widespread convection to atleast a Tropical Depression. I being very hopeful with this setup expect atleast a Tropical Depression will form but chance of Tropical cyclone seems to be low given the unorganized rainbands in early october.

The GFS 00z are indicating a fair low pressure and not significant as it was depicting during Major Cyclone Phet.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Will a new cyclone develop in Arabian sea in early Oct 2010


ABOVE- FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE 144HR PRECIPITATION SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS
SECOND IMAGE IS SHOWING 1004MB SLP


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A weakly organised convection area is likely moving Westwards at the Southern side of India. Cloud top temperatures of -40C have been reported in this area extending 10-15N,65-70E as on 0200UTC,27th Sept 2010.
GFS model runs of 12z,26th Sept 2010 are indicating that this featured unorganized convection will organize around 30th Sept-1st Oct.
Cyclogenesis will take place by early october as I find a LLC( Low level cyclonic circulation) developing with a low surface pressure building creating organization of the system around the low pressure. The 144hr GFS showing the air pressure at Sea level to be 1004mb and having a tendency to organize more.

However the 12z and 18z weather models are not very impressive from the point of view of formation of a Tropical Depression and then a Tropical cyclone. The 700mb V.vorticity and surface precipitation is showing an unorganized structure having a wedge West-east extent.
On this basis, I think that Tropical depression might develop from this low pressure (if the new runs show this low pressure's movement towards the North-West which is the usual Cyclone movement in arabian sea as it heads towards Oman sometimes like Very severe cyclone Phet

Stay tuned for updates as the new weather model runs will be exciting!

Friday, September 24, 2010

SW Monsoon 2010 retreating in near full swing

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Confirmations have now started coming after near a week of nil rains in Central India and some time in Rajasthan which is the first place where monsoon retreats
The season had started retreating well by 15th Sept 2010 as I had expected but a low
pressure formation over eastern states and its dominance for more than a week pulled back the retrival
Currently no low pressure is expected to form in bay near India and Central parts with western and eastern maharashtra will remain hot and dry as the monsoon flow retreats

According to IMD, the 2010 season is already 4% more than normal i.e 2010 rainfall till mid september is 104%.

The basic thing for this absence of low pressures is definitely the withdrawal period and the weakening MJO which was -1.5 in mid september. MJO is now turning to positive phase which means that potentials for cyclones and severe low pressures will increase given the perfect November for near active Cyclone season in India.

From 24th Sept data updated models of MJO, in the long 70-90E which is standard area of ocean (bay and arabian sea) whose activity affects inland's weather HAS TURNED TO 0- (-0.5) RANGE.The lowest of this years MJO was -2.0 which was definitely sufficient to trigger rains in Sept also.
The daily Indian Summer Monsoon circulation index from CPC is showing the graph of active monsoon is going down after a final phase in mid september.

I expect the process of withdrawal to be completed by near mid October and winters will likely kick off in North and Central areas by last week of October. However, a delay can be caused and it depends on the intensity of the withdrawal. A positive aspect is the southwards shifting of the local jet streams which is a sign of approaching cool period. 20-30kt jets at 200mb are already digging in upto Rajasthan
Given the La Nina conditions this year, I expect slight cooler than normal in North regions esp NW India.

SEVERE SOLARWX
For latest see- www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

Earth is still in the path of the high speed coronal stream which is causing high electron flux fluctuations and KP nearing to 3.
NOAA has estimated a Kp 4 soon since now the disturbance is increasing

High latitude areas must watch Auroras connected to the event!!

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

UK Winter Forecast 2010/2011 Update

I have had a stream of questions in relation to the amount of snowfall that we are likely to receive in the UK this coming winter.  As previously stated freezing temperatures will be the main concern, however heavy snowfall is also plausible as another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity. We must also consider the establishing La Nina as this is generally influential to the UK in terms of the change in global weather patterns, locations that tend to be wet will become wetter. We currently experience an ample amount of wet weather in the UK, so it would be adequate to expect even more precipitation.  More precipitation during freezing temperatures with the increased cloud cover from low sunspot activity = HEAVY SNOWFALL!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Hurricane Igor passing West of Bermuda!


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Igor is just passing West o Bermuda. Hurricane forced winds already have been reported gusting to 115km/hr+ and air pressure of 965mb. Light blowing rains already happening with storm surges.

IMPORTANT Q & A - UK Severe Winter Weather Warning 2010-2011/Winters

It really concerns me that I have presented so many FACTS still to be criticised and abused by other weather organisations who can not get their own forecasts correct! We need to prepare for a winter similar to the last at the very least or much much worse as I expect from my research/study results that have a 100% success rate so far.

1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).

2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter.  It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!

FIG.1 (NOAA, 20th Sept 2010)

These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.

Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.

La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.

So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?

I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out.  I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?

Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast.  Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on.  Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario.  There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes.  The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter.  Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.

Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS!  I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE!  I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.

What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned.  As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.

UK Weather Geek

Hurricane Igor closes Bermuda. Landfall tonight


(THE TINY RED DOT ABOVE IGOR IS BERMUDA) IGOR MIGHT PASS JUST FEW MILES AWAY FROM MAINLAND IF THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BLEND NORTH)

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Atlantic's Major hurricane Igor is nearing Bermuda for a landfall ! Igor which currently is defined by NHC as Cat.1 with max sustained winds of 85mph and air pressure 949mb is expected to hit bermuda coast Sunday evening to night hours
Hurricane warnings are already in effect for Bermuda as Igor might turn to a Cat 2 from Cat 1 as per Bermuda Weather org. I also expect Igor to strengthen!

Igor still remains a large hurricane and enough to trigger severe winds,heavy rains, and storm surges. 39mph+ winds will blow. hurricane forced winds will arrive by 9-10 PM local time as Igor makes a landfall in few hours after that. Heavy rains and winds will continue near to 10hrs as Igor then passes away

Its a direct hit and nightime situation so people must watch out~!

Friday, September 17, 2010

Alerts for Saturday upgraded in Maharashtra and Madhya-Pradesh


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

100mb low pressure surging west from its current location as on 12z over Chhattisgarh will bring very heavy rains on Saturday and sometime on Sunday in North Eastern Maharashtra,North-Central Maharashtra and South Central Madhya Pradesh. The GFS 12z precipitation plot indicating that the embedded LLC or Low level cyclonic circulation associated with the low pressure will sweep across 20N latitude line on Saturday and pumping rich moistured air mass over North eastern,north central Maharashtra and South Central Madhya Pradesh
The intensity of the low pressure still remains a matter of question as the GFS surface map is not depicting this low to fall below 1000mb but given the textbook 850mb LLC convergence, I w'd expect this low to fall to 998mb on Saturday

Rains-
Low eventually will bring very heavy rains on Saturday in Nagpur,Wardha,Bhandara,Gondia,Chandrapur,Gadchiroli,Yavatmal,Amravati,Akola and other nearby districts.
In Madhya pradesh- South-Central Madhya pradesh like Betul,Chhindwada,Pachmarhi,Itarsi etc. briefly and other areas lying in the 500km from Maharashtra-MP border.
IN ACCORDANCE TO POSSIBLE FLOOD LIKE POTENTIALS IN AREAS OF MP AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA, METD WEATHER ALREADY ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER ALERT ON MARK 3

MARK 3 ALERT CONTINUES TILL 1500HRS,SUNDAY

NAGPUR WEATHER FORECAST
18/09- RAINS. RAINS WILL BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTENSITY WILL BE FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY AND AT TIMES LIGHT.
IN AFTERNOON, I EXPECT HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING TILL EVENING AND CAUSING WATER LOGGING. SO STAY ALERT

19/09-PARTLY RAINY DAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THERE ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PERIODS OF NO RAINS TO MODERATE RAINS

20/09- PARTLY CLOUDY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOL



20/09- PARTLY SUNNY

Thursday, September 16, 2010

New Alerts for Maharashtra and nearby areas. Heavy rains very likely on Sat

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Wide area of Convection happening over the Eastern States is most likely to organize on Friday and more on Saturday as a low level cyclonic circulation develops with a mid level vortex system adding all to a low pressure area. The strength of the low might not be that severe as we were expected but could definitely throw life out of gear in central India esp Eastern and Central Maharashtra
The 00z models are very clear in suggesting the track of the low across the Central India portion eventually pulling ample moisture from Arabian Sea and pumping it over land. Given the decrease in the pressure associated with low movement and increase in the moisture amount,

VERY HEAVY RAINS will strike initially Most of Chattisgarh areas like Raipur,Durg,Bhilai,Bilaspur,South-west Orrissa,Souther Chattisgarh and SE Maharashtra.
METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 3 ALERT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS (WRITTEN IN RED) . ALERT BEGINS 1200HRS,17TH SEPT 2010
EXPIRES 1300HRS,19TH SEPT 2010 (ALERT CONTINUES FOR SW ORRISSA AND SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH,SE MAHARASHTRA ON SUN. FOR REST AREAS ALERT EXPIRES ON 1300HRS,18TH SEPT 2010)

As the low moves more west, heavy rains will pound
VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL STRIKE ON SATURDAY AT WIDE AREA
SE OF MAHARASHTRA,NAGPUR,WARDHA,AMRAVATI,AKOLA,JALGAON,
MAHARASHTRA-MP BORDER,SOUTH CENTRAL MP AND LAST AT BHOPAL.
THE MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE NEAR MAHARASHTRA-MP BORDER AREAS AND FEW 100KM IN MADHYA PRADESH FROM MAHARASHTRA
METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 3 ALERT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ALERT BEGINS 2300HRS,17TH SEPT 2010
EXPIRES 1700HRS,19TH SEPT 2010 (SINCE SOME MORE RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE REGION)

MARK 3 ALERT MEANS- Mark 3 is a scale which means Moderate THREAT with IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. Mark 3 alert means THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT from the Weather. THREAT LEVEL MODERATE

Nagpur Weather Forecast-
17/09- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. 8% CHANCE OF RAINS (ON SCALE OF 30% MAX) IN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALSO. IN ALL LESS CHANCE OF RAINS

18/09- MARK 3 ALERT IN EFFECT
VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY FROM MORNING,POSSIBLE WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS.
CHANCE OF RAIN IS 30% ON 30% MAXIMUM VALUE
19/09- MARK 2 ALERT STARTS FROM SUNDAY EARLY MORNING
RAINS ON SUNDAY ALSO CONTINUING FROM SATURDAY, LESS CHANCE OF WATER LOGGING BUT THREAT PERSISTS, COOL DAY.

20/09- PARTLY RAINY DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COOL DAY.

I w'd not be surprised to find flood like situations in the areas mentioned above in RED color



Hurricane Igor's eyewall no longer symmetrical



METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Igor has a very deep convection happening at its center as the major hurricane continues to surge at Cat4 mark in the Atlantic but noticed the shapeless eyewall in last few satellite images just after the eyewall replacement Igor had on Wednesday.
Clear from the Water vapor imagery of Igor of 17:45UT,16th Sept 2010.. convection at the center is not symmetric. Such cases sometimes happen when there is no sufficient convergence with the system or somethings like the horizontal wind shears disrupt the convergence from happening.
The attached Satellite imagery of 1745 clearly depicts that a region along West of Igor is not at all in a circular manner like Cat 4 hurricanes do as the Moderate westerly shear is likely pounding Igor. As a result of which Igor is not looking strong on satellite imagery and has weaker spiral bands

Igor is still a Cat.4 hurricane with 140mph max sustained winds and low central air pressure of 934mb.

As I mentioned in the last post of Igor, its forward speed has definitely reduced
to 7mph from 14-15mph as there is a blocking jet stream north of it. Due to this Igor will ling
er for some time and then as the jet moves away and the gap between the next jet arrives, Igor will rapidly strengthen(forward speed).Also Igor will (is now) moving North West wards towards the gap.

Right-
The 200mb 6hrs+12z,16/09/10
Igor is at intersection of -60W and 20N line where it is written 1236.
The blue extension north of Igor is 70-90kt jetstream flowing east. Due to its presence Igor has reduced forward speed

Forecast-
Igor will still maintain its intensity of Cat 4 till Saturday since shears will be low to moderate and not high
its track seem to be missing Bermuda but spiral bands will definitely hit Bermuda though eyewall stays away

More update as situation unfurls



UK Winter Forecast 2010/11 Update

Well in answer to all the questions regarding Joe Bastardi's UK winter forecast, yes he is well respected and that is his opinion and you also have mine, we will see who is right but at this present moment in time I see it as impossible that we will have a mild winter. The low sunspot activity, the behaviour of the gulf stream, and the La Nina should override any other factors, my forecast does therefore not change for a severe winter that will at the very least be similar to last (and that was bad enough) or much worse, with a good chance of heavy snowfall!

Hi WeatherGeek. With the release of Joe Bastadi's UK forecast does this knock your confidence slightly? Joe seems to be a reliable source when it comes to long term forecasts..... I personally agree with you in regards to it being a severe winter ahead however there does seem to be a pretty even divide on the net over whether it will be mild or severe....

 I have been reading all of these posts with great interest over the past few days. All of Weathergeek's theories sound very plausible and likely, but then there are major forecast stations and sites saying that it is going to be milder than last year - it really is hard to know what to believe - but I suppose it does no harm to plan for the worst. I would just love loads of snow, I am too young (29 lol) to remember any major snow in the past, being from N. Ireland, so it would be great to see loads of it!!!

Joe Bastardi's winter blog released:....... Hi new guy here just saw Joe's blog Richardc1983 its just a rough out look , but truth be told he has no idea whats going to happen. My reason for this statement is that you can read on his blog that he's done no research on the weather patern for the u.k etc and he's just speculating , so until he does a full report and some research you just have to wait and see. I think weathergeek will be spot on this year in regards to winter 2010/2011 , for those who like a white x-mas like myself I can't see it dumping it down in the south or the southeast but I hope I'm wrong . I would think the northern part will stand a better chance then us down here in the south , but let's hope I'm wrong theres nothing like a white covering of snow all over the place.

Joe Bastardi's winter blog released: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. "
How pants is that!!!

The expected low pressure most likely to change the path in Central India


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The 00z, model forecasts are suggesting intensification of the current existing low pressure having Central air pressure near to 1002mb over Eastern Coast of India. Models suggesting the movement of this forecasted low across CENTRAL INDIA with peak low air pressure nearing to 996mb and around on 18th Sept that is Saturday

Given the excellent conditions for this one such as lower convergence and upper divergence which are forecasted to remain over Central India, I w'd not be surprised to find this one nearing to the forecasted air pressure (If something unusual doesn't happen)

Considering according to the forecast
This low pressure NOW WILL BRING SOME SOLID RAINS THIS WEEKEND IN CENTRAL INDIA. IF THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AGAIN THEN IT WILL DEFINITELY CREATE FLOODING POTENTIALS IN MANY AREAS SINCE EVERY LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAHARASHTRA HAS DONE VERY BAD THINGS

Forecast-
Friday- VERY HEAVY RAINS IN WEST- CENTRAL CHATTISGARH
ESPECIALLY BHILAI,RAIPUR,RAJNANDGAON AND NEARBY AREAS
(RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY,16TH SEPT 2010)
I ISSUE A MARK 3 ALERT ON METD WEATHER'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK SCALE
ALERT EXPIRES- 1500HRS IST SATURDAY,18TH SEPT 2010

(((MARK 3. Mark 3 is a scale which means Moderate THREAT with IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. Mark 3 alert means THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT from the Weather. THREAT LEVEL MODERATE))))

On Saturday, The low is expected to move THROUGH NAGPUR
So, Very heavy rains are likely on Saturday.
I ISSUE A MARK 3 ALERT FOR NAGPUR,WARDHA,AMRAVATI,AKOLA,BHANDARA, KATOL, AND OTHER AREAS WITHIN 450KM OF RADIUS FROM NAGPUR

Nagpur Weather Forecast-

Thu- Thunderstorm at late night with some rains
Fri- Mostly Cloudy and some rains expected at afternoon side( Check www.facebook.com/metdweather) for exact details
Sat- Heavy rains and cool day.MARK 3 ALERT IN EFFECT TILL 1400HRS SUNDAY,19TH SEPT 2010
** IF THE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS THE FORECASTED PATH THEN VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL CREATE WATER LOGGING IN CITY, FLOODING POTENTIALS IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND THEIR VICINITY
STAY SAFE

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Two Cat.4 Hurricanes churning in Atlantic Ocean


Above- Hurricane Igor the left one and Hurricane Julia to the right of Igor.

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As on 15th Sept 2010, Two massive Hurricanes- Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia both surging with winds of 145mph and 135 mph at max sustained respectively.

Igor now has a new eyewall and LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MORE GIVEN THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS

Stay tuned for details as Igor braces near Bermuda which Julia misses it!

Hurricane Igor undergoing Eyewall replacement! Weakens slightly


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Latest!!!
As was mentioned by me in earlier post, Hurricane Igor could miss the golden opportunity of reaching Cat 5 mark as I expected an eyewall replacement happening in it

Confirmed from the Infrared and water vapour satellite imagery of IGOR on 08:45UTC,
the existing eyewall got eroded from SW quadrant of the eyewall and newly developing eyewall from SE side is now replacing the previous eyewall. We will be able to see the new eyewall in next round of satellite imagery

IGOR is now a Cat 4 Hurricane in Atlantic having a central air pressure of 935mph and winds max sustained of 145mph which earlier was 155mph in early morning.
Igor is moving WNW at 10mph and at location of 19.5N,54.5W

NHC in their recent forecast discussion # 29 wrote that Igor's forward speed will increase as soon as it crosses the subtropical ridge. The Jet streams of which I wrote in the last post will decrease the forward speed till Igor crosses the ride. Then it will move with increased speed towards the gap
Also NHC mentioned East wards shift on days 4,5 than mentioned. This seems to be a little matter of confusion for me as I believe Igor will bend slightly west and not east
I believe Igor will miss Bermuda but outer spiral bands will definitely pound Bermuda!

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Hurricane Igor churning in the Atlantic!


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster.

Massive Atlantic Hurricane Igor is churning with an intense low central air pressure of 925 mb and Max sustained 155mph winds to the south-west of the Atlantic Subtropical Ride or Bermuda High.
Igor is now a Cat.4 Hurricane and having solid Cloud top temperature!

Already in an environment of low vertical shears and over warm waters and in transition to warmer water in next 12-18hrs, Igor is likely going to strengthen to a Cat.5 Hurricane since the conditions remain very favorable for intensification. Exception to this can be the
recent in process Eye Wall replacement as seen from the Microwave and Water vapour satellite imagery.
Eyewall replacement actually decreases the intensity of the Major hurricane like Igor as there is a change in the symmetry i.e Hurricanes become more asymmetric.
But, Igor do have a golden chance of becoming the first Cat 5 Hurricane of the season in Atlantic.

Forecast-
The dominant Bermuda high will maintain the intensity over next few days as Igor churns in the atlantic. Since a north West move of IGOR must begin soon, Forecasts will concentrate on Bermuda. Igor is following a track away from the eastern Coast of USA and has more threat for Bermuda
But, I don't find Igor dominating Bermuda since a lot of weakening will happen as it encounters cooler SST and dry air on its way. Also, in the upper level forecast till Friday, a blocking jet stream of 70-90kt winds over 40N and 60W i.e SE of Bermuda might have a change
in Igors Northwards Movement. I expect Igor to speed down for some time however I may be wrong since I have seen such a situation for the first time.
See here what I am speaking of

Right-
The 200mb NCEP forecast in the atlantic ocean
At intersection of -60 on y axis and 20 on x axis, where in blue color its written 50 is the position where IGOR will be in 42nd hour from now i.e by 18z UTC on Thursday. North of it there is an extending jetstream having a flow towards East.
This situation can likely reduce IGOR's speed or shift Igor towards slight west in the gap of two branch of jets

More details as the situation unfurls.

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog for Space Weather!


Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.
I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.
But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -
"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan Blog
The Severe Solar Weather forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Natural factors and their influence on UK and Northern European winters

https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1z5Wt1LPhzFyjLwIebj0hEnJu0I33n1wXVuoQPu0itFY

Monday, September 13, 2010

UK Winter Weather Warning - 2010/2011 Forecast



or visit youtube @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

Show this everyone you know.

Rainfall to begin again in Central India after a week of inactive period

ABOVE- THE SUMMER MONSOON INDEX SHOWING AN ENHANCED ACTIVITY OF MONSOON IN THIS WEEK


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster

Currently in a slow or weak phase, the SW Monsoon season is still active! After some heavy downpours in the last week, the newly arriving datas from GFS,NCEP and CDAS clearly depict that Monsoon will again activate in the heart of the Country i.e over Central India

The 12z,GFS are indicating the presence of a LLCC or Low level cyclonic circulation which is the forming stage of a low pressure offshore Andhra Pradesh.But the thai map doesn't indicate any low air pressure presence in the area mentioned above with the same time run.
Surprisingly, this time as seen from the 5 day GFS plot, the bay low is not expected to bring any rains but a surface low pressure area(Extending to low levels) will form just North East of Maharashtra. This one might form from the same mentioned bay low in the form of a pulse as I see a rapid weakening of the bay low after the surface low has been created

If GFS plots prove true then the remaining low will merge with the existing pre-dominant surface low by 15-16th Sept 2010 and then start pulling the moisture from Arabian Sea

If such happens, then some rains again will hit Central India and Eastern India.
This time, as per 12z, low will be placed at the end of this week much north of normal positions centring near to Tropic of Cancer.
With Negative MJO already at place, I w'd not be surprised to find rains back with the low

AS a result,
Rains will again impact (PERHAPS FOR THE LAST TIME) IN Central India and towards Delhi side since this low has a mean position relative to normal
Increase in rains in Central India from Wednesday,15th Sept 2010
Heavy rains possible towards weak end

Nagpur-
Clearly seen from the Meteogram moisture plot,
Nagpur is again going to get rains !

5 day forecast for Nagpur
Tuesday- Partly Cloudy.
Slight chance of a spell of rain in afternoon (4%)
Slight chance of light showers at late night(10%)

Wednesday,
Mostly Cloudy! Increase in rainfall chance than Tuesday at night period

Thursday
Highly cloudy and possibly a partly rainy day.

Friday-
Rains (intensity unknown)

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with multiple rainfall chance

Above forecast for Nagpur depends on Low pressure intensity and placement!
Forecast is subjected to change!

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Yamuna River still flowing above danger mark! Delhi misses the Low pressure strike

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster

Delhi saved from near Massive destruction!
Conditions on Saturday were all favorable to wash away delhi due to heavy rains coupled with the rising water of Yamuna River. As seen from the afternoon satellite imagery, Massive convective clouds had formed in association with the 998mb air pressure(LOW) just South of Delhi having top temperature -20C. The upper level (300mb winds) which are the steering winds in the cases of such low showed a SouthWest to North East movement which was away from Delhi but was considerably near to cause Thunderstorm and rains during early morning and afternoon.
The clouds then turned towards Haryana and were feared to cause heavy downpours. Fortunately maximum of 30mm rainfall was recorded in Chandigarh which is expected to be the highest in the region. Now, the low pressure has turned towards Pakistan and the clouds have become weak(Weak Convection system) and turned far away from Haryana and Delhi
So, I don't expect any more heavy rains in Delhi and Haryana in next 48hrs

Yamuna River-
For the entire day and now also, the yamuna river flowed over the danger mark and caused severe water logs in Delhi and at some areas water till waist!
But,Haryana is expected to release more 30,000 Cubic Centimeter water in coming time.
If this doesn't happen, then water levels have to go down in areas

METD WEATHER has decided to lift the ONGOING MARK 5 ALERT AND ASSOCIATED PDS(PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) from Delhi and nearby areas at 1800hrs,12th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday since I don't find any weather problem associated!
Given the release of more water from Haryana,conditions can change but I have no technical knowledge on dams

Friday, September 10, 2010

VERY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TOWARDS DELHI-HARYANA ON SATURDAY


METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS,
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

MARK 5 ALERT AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!
SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS
HEAVY (AT TIMES VERY HEAVY) RAINS WILL HIT NEW DELHI,EASTERN HARYANA, NW UTTAR PRADESH AND MUCH UTTARANCHAL ON SATURDAY,11TH SEPTEMBER 2010 AND ON SUNDAY IN UTTARANCHAL ONLY
SINCE THE YAMUNA RIVER IS ALREADY OVERFLOWING THE DANGER MARK,THE SITUATION CAN BECOME WORSE DUE TO SUCH HEAVY RAINS.
ALSO IN DELHI, WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY.

AS HEAVY RAINS WILL STRIKE IN HARYANA AND DELHI THE ALREADY OVERFLOWING YAMUNA RIVER WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY MORE AND I DEFINITELY LOOK THIS SITUATION AS SERIOUS ONE

SO METD WEATHER ISSUES A PDS(PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) AND A MARK 5 ALERT FOR DELHI,HARYANA DUE TO YAMUNA RIVER
A MARK II ALERT FOR NORTH-WEST UTTAR PRADESH AND UTTARANCHAL


Precautionary measures are always important. So if rainfall intensity remains less then also alert is useful.


SW Monsoon 2010 Revival begins slow! it may miss the mid sept date


METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


The SW Monsoon 2010 revival has started but the intensity is very less. The season withdraws from Rajasthan but considering the previous rainrates recorded in early Sept. it looks that season is still active in North and West.
Since we are nearing to mid September, things should had changed by this period but I can say nothing significant happening

A new low pressure area is expected to form as per the GFS 12z. This one again looks to be dominant and seems to again SWEEP through Central India. But, I notice a slight southward shift of the Low's embedded Cyclonic circulation and is perhaps due to the southward shift of the local jet streams which happens both during the Monsoon withdrawal and winter approach
Once Winter onsets, jet streams will intensify as there is no significant collision between the arctic air and the tropical air mass.
The direction and location of the jet streams have very important role in the placements of low pressures esp. cyclonic circulations!
So, Orrissa and Maharashtra can remain safe from it and there might not be another Flooding potentials in Vidarbha with it.

If so happens,
Then another low over land will disrupt the withdrawal process. The low is expected to linger over land by 15-16 Sept and definitely will cause some rainfall again in Vidarbha

Nagpur weather forecast
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM IN NAGPUR MOSTLY TILL WEDNESDAY,15TH SEPT WHEN SOME LIGHT TO MDT RAINS WILL HAPPEN IN CONTINUATION FOR SOME DAYS (1-2) DUE TO LOW PRESSURE

Thursday, September 9, 2010

7 inch rain in 6hrs at Varoda,Gujarat

There has been a report which I just received that it rained 7 inch or
177.8mm in 6hrs in Gujarat nearly 30mm+ in an hour. I will update more
after I receive confirmation

Heavy rains will continue in south and Central Gujarat for some more hours
Rainfall will go down after Friday afternoon

Heavy rains possible in Gujarat due to the low pressure on Thursday




METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster

High delay in informing this. Pardon!

The low pressure which recently swept Central India and created massive floods in Bhandara and Gondia dist in East Maharashtra now is almost setting over Gujarat and in association with it, Severe Convective Clouds having a cloud top temperature nearing to -70C have formed at South Gujarat possibly over Daman.

Also a mid level vortex system has built over Eastern Gujarat
Seeing all, I would say that Heavy rains will hit Gujarat on 9th Sept and some periods on 10th sept but not likely to do anything severe.

No potent Flood conditions exist other than for Central gujarat

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011

Now this is very interesting!

I actually have received a number of comments through my blog post and youtube video over the past few days that was very similar to the posting by KATENG.  I had to delete the first two comments due to the swear words and abuse that they contained towards my work, as my work is also open to all ages.  I mean these comments was quite nasty and personal, I even felt the need to comment back and say that I was not saying I was right about everything, the purpose of this was purely me being modest and it was meant in the context of me not being sure about what we are heading for in terms of cooling.  ie whether or not we are heading for little ice age/ice age conditions or just a general cooling trend.

Here is the first comment:

You are "not saying you are right about everthing" and yet you are so sure you are right that you have instructed every newspaper and the Met Office to issue severe weather warnings for a period five months ahead? That doesn't add up.


There was no personal attack in my comment. And I am nothing to do with "the global warming boom", whatever that might be. I am, however, a professional meteorologist who has to deal with fallout arising from the worries of clients who read the certainties in forecasts such as yours.


You are of course entitles to an opinion but to dress it up as thorough science is misleading.


I shall re-post my objections in a "cleaned up" version, and perhaps you could address the points I raise - THAT'S science.

Do you think that this professional meteorologist having to deal with fallout arising from worried clients could possibly be some weather organisation or global warming alarmist? Do you think they are possibly annoyed with me for contacting every UK newspaper with my prediction, on the basis of my previously correct seasonal forecasts. I am guessing a lot of people must have been in touch with this specific organisation or person recently in regards to my work, maybe this is because there is some validity in what I am saying. Why else would people be making a fuss about what I say for me to cause an arising fallout amongst worried clients?

Here is the second comment:

There is a lot wrong with your assertions.


1. You are fatally confusing local weather with global climate.


2. Sunspot activity is currently INCREASING.


3. We just experienced the second warmest year globally on record (2009) and the warmest January to July period globally on record (2010) at a time of sunspot minimum.


4. There was nowhere near enough debris from Eyjafjallajökull to affect northern hemispheric temperatures. Moreover, it lacked significant ejections of sulfur dioxide which is the aerosol that causes most of the cooling after large eruptions.
5. The thermosphere is behaving in an interesting fashion at the moment. But take me through the thought process that makes you link a shrinking thermosphere to temperatures in the *troposphere*.
6. How do you think the thermosphere will hold onto volcanic ash and cut solar radiation when what little volcanic debris there is from the Icelandic volcano will not even reach that height?


7. La Nina does NOT *always* immediately follow El Nino. In *this instance* it is likely to.


8. You have made no provision for forecasting the state of the AO/NAO nor do you make any mention of the PDO, AMO or any of the other likely drivers.


9. Here's what might happen in the UK/parts of Europe - first half of the winter will be colder than average, second half will be near normal or even a little milder than average, and not "worse than last year". It's as good a guess as yours.

The purpose of me showing you the above comment is so you can note the similarities in the original daily mail posting from KATENG below, which I am now going to address with hard facts that you can also research for yourself.
First of all, I loved the way that they tried to make me to look instantly stupid by commenting on the thames freezing.  My prediction however is that the UK will experience a winter similar to the last or much worse as I expect due to the cold factors in play, the following winter of 2011/12 is also a height of concern.  The thames freezing over is not my predicition I simply stated this as a possibility.  I have mentioned this in my posts due to the fact that when we was last in little ice age conditions, the thames actually did freeze over due to low solar activity, volcanic activity, and a slowdown of the ocean conveyor.  These are all factors that I have mentioned to you throughout the last few years, you can even check this for yourself below, don't worry wikipedia is not a weak reference in regards to what caused the little ice age as this is common knowledge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

1.  I am sure that I am not fatally confusing local weather with global climate, maybe it is this sort of thinking that led to a mild winter forecast for the UK last year when I predicted a severe winter.  I am predicting local weather not global climate, although I have suggested global cooling due to low solar activity.

2.  In 2006 NASA made a prediction for the next sunspot maximum to be between 150 and 200 around the year 2011 (30-50% stronger than cycle 23), followed by a weak maximum at around 2022.  The prediction did not come true as highlighted in my 2009 essay @ https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1YahKtCYLkiGef6acK-c1SFFU1s9dyvisk4uAgOs9PSk&pli=1
The sunspot cycle in 2010 is still at its minimum, where it should have been near its maximum, showing the suns very unusual low activity, this also has future effects on low solar activity.  You really do need to check out the recent new scientist article below  http://www.sott.net/articles/show/210503-What-s-wrong-with-the-sun-

3.   Well it certainly did not feel warm to me? Plus this warming data is from the NOAA as highlighted in my blog post on the 21st July 2010.  This data can not be trusted as 100% reliable as outlined by respected American physicist, Dr Charles R. Anderson.
http://www.revolutionbroadcasting.com/?p=692
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/26758

4.  Well there must of been a lot of debris from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano as all the airports was shut down all over Europe for weeks.  Yes the amount of sulfur dioxide does play a role and ash generally does fall back to earth.  I am however approaching the word generally with caution, as the point here and another fact is that some ash will have not fallen back to earth, sulfur gases will also still be present in the stratosphere for at least another year or so yet, it is this effect and also fact that this will block out extra sunlight.

5.  The thermosphere is behaving in a very interesting fashion, I mentioned this as it clearly appears to be cooling in correlation with the low sunspot activity as I clearly stated.  I did mention that any debris would stay in the atmosphere longer due to the shrinkage and this was in terms of space debris in the upper atmosphere, the space debris will reflect back some sunlight however miniscule it used to be thought of before the shrinkage.  The fact remains that the upper atmosphere does appear to be shrinking and scientists are confused by this.  My hypothesis is that this extra space debris will reflect even further sunlight away than the miniscule amount it usually would, common sense really when you think about it.  Now couple this with the new volcanic debris in the atmosphere from recent eruptions including Eyjafjallajökull and you will start to understand what I am trying to say.

6.  I feel it is irrelevant on this occasion if the la nina always follows the el nino as I stated.  In general it actually does but there are times when it may not.  I feel this is rather nit picky to be honest, the real problem has been avoided here with the monster la nina that we are about to experience as I have previously outlined.

7.  I am not confusing local weather with global climate again am I?  as I have previously suggested earlier maybe it is this kind of thinking and computer models that has produced stacks of incorrect seasonal forecasts.

I also found it very interesting that there was no mention of the gulf stream in all of this, especially as this is one of the most talked about factors on my posts.  The effects from the gulf stream on the UK from slight anomalies can be bad enough on its own without even considering any of the other factors that I have mentioned.  It is also interesting they predict a colder than average winter for for the first half of winter, so why are you having a go at my work again?

So there is not actually a lot wrong with my assertions at all, none of this can actually be disproved.

As for you KATENG you are obviously not going to let me get my point across and raise awareness, I actually feel like you have invaded my life over the past few days with your abusive comments towards the work on my blog, the youtube video which you branded pathetic, and now your on here.  I also love the way that the last line of the KATENG post mentioned the frozen thames again, it would appear that the person responsible here used an excellent credibility technique to make me look uncredible.  Notice how it was mentioned at the start and the end of the post, this was done deliberately so it stuck in your head, the frozen thames really was a very minor part of all the information I have ever provided.  It is also interesting that you chose to highlight on some grammatical and type errors within my work, and as for the paris hilton comments about my video, is that really the best you can do?  You appear to not be in approval of my work but surely do you need to stoop this low?  If it was looking like we was heading for warming or a mild winter, do you not think that I would be reporting this instead?

On a more serious note guys, I think I am going to struggle to give you any more information than you already have, as I feel I may have annoyed a lot of important people with my predictions.  Did you know that the met office is run by the ministry of defence, I don't really want to be getting their tails up to be honest. I was simply trying to raise some awareness based on my theories and past predictions, it is really not worth the abuse and hassle just for me and my so called alarmism, I also have a young family to consider at the minute.

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens and who is right, however KATENG I feel you seriously underestimated me.

Prepare for the severe winters to come guys and good luck.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Extremely heavy rains hit Bhandara,Gondia




Above- The article published in Hitavada paper dated 8th Sept 2010

AS was alerted before. On Tuesday, very very heavy rains Bhandara and Gondia places in East Maharashtra.
Bhandara district recorded 678mm rainfall in 8hours!! (OFFICIAL REPORT FROM IMD)
Bhandara tehsil recorded 110.2mm rains,Mohadi registered 42mm,Tumsar registered 195mm,Paoni-80mm,Sakoli- 138mm,Lakhandur-78mm,

Flooding happened within few hours after the rains as a result of which nearly 49 bus passengers rescued from flooded Bhandara-Paoni road!
Nagpur city recorded 35mm rains as recorded at METD WEATHER hq.

300 Houses damaged in Arjuni Morgaon,
Gondia recorded 101mm rains between 9-11AM.

around 50,000 cubic centimeter water will be released from Wainaganga dam at 10PM today

Water storages in Major lakes-

Itiadoh- 100%,Sirpur-98%,Pujaritola-97%,Kalisarar-92%